The world’s largest publicly traded oil companies are preparing for a painful 2025 as falling crude prices and renewed trade frictions under President Donald Trump chip away at the record profits that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Adjusted net income at ExxonMobil, Shell, TotalEnergies, Chevron and BP plunged by roughly $90 billion from 2022 to 2024, and earnings are set to fall further this year.
Brent crude briefly dipped below $60 a barrel this month, with Opec boosting output and investors fretting over fresh U.S. tariff threats. Many analysts now predict that average oil prices in the second half of 2025 will be at least 20 per cent below last year’s $81 a barrel benchmark, prompting shareholders to ask which majors can uphold the generous dividends and share-buyback programmes they have come to expect.
Italian group Eni offered a window into industry tactics in its first-quarter update, pledging to cut capital expenditure by at least $500 million and warning its free cash flow would be $2 billion lower than planned at $65 oil, yet vowing to preserve shareholder payouts. HSBC analysts praised Eni’s approach as a “template” for peers, while cautioning that few rivals boast comparably robust balance sheets.
Across the sector, investment plans are being scaled back: consultancy Wood Mackenzie forecasts that upstream development spending will fall in 2025 for the first time since the pandemic. This retrenchment comes as BP, TotalEnergies and Shell gear up to report quarterly results with BP on Tuesday, Total on Wednesday and ExxonMobil, Shell and Chevron on Friday most expecting weak headline numbers. Investors will focus on forward guidance rather than the quarter’s reported earnings, since the steepest oil-price declines occurred after the period ended.
Among Europe’s oil giants, Shell appears best positioned: chief executive Wael Sawan has pledged to return half of the company’s free cash flow to shareholders and said buy-backs and dividends would be sustained even if oil slid to $50 or $40 a barrel respectively. BP, by contrast, faces activist pressure and linked its 2025 shareholder returns to a $71.50 oil price, with each $1 drop hitting profits by about $340 million.
In the United States, analysts view ExxonMobil and Chevron divergently. Exxon’s diversified asset base should allow it to maintain payouts well into 2026, whereas Chevron may need to reset buy-back expectations downward if oil remains at the lower end of its $60–85 range. Smaller U.S. shale producers and oilfield service companies have also warned of tightening market conditions if low prices persist, with Baker Hughes, Halliburton and SLB all flagging softer demand in recent days.
